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A trader made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the event.

Changing Odds in Predictions

Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that Maduro had been seized.

A single trader, which joined the platform in December and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000.

The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement

Market statistics shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd.

However the odds had jumped to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the early hours of Saturday, pointing to a rapid movement in betting activity just before the social media post was made.

"This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher.

A handful of other traders also profited tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture.

Legal Questions Grows

Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention.

Proposed legislation introduced on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet.

Market Background

Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to current affairs.

The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate.

Insider trading is a crime in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market industry.

An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."