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It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have stacked up.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.